Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Holstein Kiel vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 19¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
12
Yes 67%
$7.0K
$-6.4K
84¢ → 18.5¢
-78% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 30.4¢ | $1.2K | $3.3K | +$2.1K | 54% 55758-47850 (103608) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 68.9¢ | $4.0K | $1.5K | $-2.5K | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
ZX zxc368CTR | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $5.5K | $1.0K | $-4.5K | 99% 12685-184 (12869) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 54.2¢ | $274 | $412.06 | +$138.06 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
LO looppauCTR | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $1.5K | $277.5 | $-1.2K | 99% 10524-53 (10577) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 95.9¢ | $661.51 | $201.43 | -$460.08 | 50% 12142-12350 (24492) |
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $93.34 | $90.89 | -$2.46 | 51% 846-799 (1645) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $57.92 | $57.33 | -$0.59 | 53% 15742-13913 (29655) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $3.51 | $35.8 | +$32.29 | 60% 9411-6401 (15812) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $8.1 | $8.15 | +$0.05 | 58% 40808-29511 (70319) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $10.15 | $2.8 | -$7.35 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.05 | $0.6 | -$0.44 | 53% 3109-2775 (5884) |
RN1Invested
$1,242.26
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
54%
55758-47850 (103608)
Invested
$4,029.73
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
Invested
$5,506.77
Value
$1.0K
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
99%
12685-184 (12869)
Invested
$274
Value
$412.06
PnL
+$138.06
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
Invested
$1,498.5
Value
$277.5
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
99%
10524-53 (10577)
Invested
$661.51
Value
$201.43
PnL
-$460.08
Record
50%
12142-12350 (24492)
Invested
$93.34
Value
$90.89
PnL
-$2.46
Record
51%
846-799 (1645)
Invested
$57.92
Value
$57.33
PnL
-$0.59
Record
53%
15742-13913 (29655)
poshposh<$100Invested
$3.51
Value
$35.8
PnL
+$32.29
Record
60%
9411-6401 (15812)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
40808-29511 (70319)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$7.35
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.44
Record
53%
3109-2775 (5884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.