Holstein Kiel vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 59¢ · $522 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$521.67
$187.67
62.4¢ → 59¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Yesavg 60¢ | $300.49 | $500.4 | +$199.91 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Yesavg 95¢ | $32.3 | $20.06 | -$12.24 | 64% 997-568 (1565) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $1.21 | $1.21 | +$0 | 99% 12685-184 (12869) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.