Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-10-27?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $707 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$706.95
$23.02
87.7¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Noavg 88.5¢ | $599.63 | $613.34 | +$13.71 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $63.21 | $70.07 | +$6.86 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $38.26 | $9 | +$0.89 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $4.31 | $5.1 | +$0.78 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.99 | $4.98 | -$0.01 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.89 | $3.72 | +$0.83 | 52% 5834-5451 (11285) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $0.79 | $0.75 | -$0.04 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
Invested
$599.63
Value
$613.34
PnL
+$13.71
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
Invested
$63.21
Value
$70.07
PnL
+$6.86
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$38.26
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.89
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$4.31
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0.78
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2.89
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.83
Record
52%
5834-5451 (11285)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$0.04
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.