Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$37.8

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,391

Combined PnL+$34.77

Over7 traders

Total Value$55.36

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$3.03

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 62¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$47.78	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 79¢	$20.25	$22.81	+$2.56	60% 9138-6084 (15222)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$12.63	$13.58	+$0.95	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 34.6¢	$11.5	$11.78	+$0.28	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 38¢	$5	$4.67	-$0.33	50% 10448-10312 (20760)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 39¢	$57.39	$4.66	+$3.26	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 59¢	$6.52	$3.92	-$2.6	49% 18442-18863 (37305)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 35¢	$3.82	$3.87	+$0.05	50% 32622-32156 (64778)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 37.5¢	$3.85	$3.64	-$0.21	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 3.5¢	$16.25	$2.29	-$13.96	67% 23049-11442 (34491)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,185

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$47.78

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$20.25

Value

$22.81

PnL

+$2.56

Record

60%

9138-6084 (15222)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.63

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$0.95

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

10448-10312 (20760)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$57.39

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$3.26

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$6.52

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$2.6

Record

49%

18442-18863 (37305)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

32622-32156 (64778)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.21

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.25

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$13.96

Record

67%

23049-11442 (34491)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.