Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $428 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$428.29
$226.63
16.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardi22CTR | Underavg 4.5¢ | $41.9 | $296.1 | +$255.2 | 56% 1222-944 (2166) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 44.7¢ | $129.05 | $103.99 | -$25.05 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $25.31 | $13.05 | -$2.52 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 57.5¢ | $10.92 | $8.82 | +$0.97 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $4.92 | $4.32 | -$0.6 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $3.38 | $2.02 | -$1.37 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
bernardi22CTRInvested
$41.9
Value
$296.1
PnL
+$255.2
Record
56%
1222-944 (2166)
Invested
$129.05
Value
$103.99
PnL
-$25.05
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25.31
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$2.52
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$8.82
PnL
+$0.97
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.32
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.38
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$1.37
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.