Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 0.1¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 38%
1 arb excluded
$11.2K
$-3.0K
45.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR crisp1973CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $6.9K | $7.7K | $-2.8K | 53% 72-65 (137) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 55.4¢ | $2.8K | $2.5K | -$325.8 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 96.9¢ | $323.76 | $311.99 | -$11.77 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
 HRTrading | Yesavg 56¢ | $113.14 | $194.82 | +$81.68 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 29¢ | $75.61 | $132.98 | +$57.36 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 45.2¢ | $115.36 | $130.26 | +$14.9 | 53% 15687-13859 (29546) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 54¢ | $108 | $98 | -$10 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $72.45 | $71.03 | -$1.41 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $65.44 | $67.7 | +$2.26 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45¢ | $36.82 | $41.73 | +$4.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $28.62 | $25.97 | -$2.65 |
Invested
$6,938.23
Value
$7.7K
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
53%
72-65 (137)
Invested
$2,811.69
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$325.8
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$323.76
Value
$311.99
PnL
-$11.77
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
HRTradingInvested
$113.14
Value
$194.82
PnL
+$81.68
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$75.61
Value
$132.98
PnL
+$57.36
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
Invested
$115.36
Value
$130.26
PnL
+$14.9
Record
53%
15687-13859 (29546)
VeryLucky888Invested
$108
Value
$98
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$72.45
Value
$71.03
PnL
-$1.41
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
Invested
$65.44
Value
$67.7
PnL
+$2.26
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.