Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $683 held · ended Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$682.6

Combined PnL

-$100.22

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$494.44

Total Shares659

Combined PnL-$110.93

Yes4 traders

Total Value$188.17

Total Shares765

Combined PnL+$10.71

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 92.8¢	$579.58	$468.65	-$110.93	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$143.16	$155.6	+$12.45	53% 15687-13859 (29546)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$25.79	$25.79	+$0	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$23	$25	+$2	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$8.2	$7.5	-$0.7	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$3.1	$0.06	-$3.04	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$579.58

Value

$468.65

PnL

-$110.93

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$143.16

Value

$155.6

PnL

+$12.45

Record

53%

15687-13859 (29546)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$25.79

Value

$25.79

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23

Value

$25

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.2

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.04

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.