SSV Jeddeloh II vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 55¢ · $266 held · ended Oct 28

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$266.36

Combined PnL

-$7.6

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$51.89

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$14.29

Under4 traders

Total Value$52.05

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$6.68

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 69¢	$223.7	$162.42	-$61.28	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
└ Over leg	Overavg 69¢	$173.76	$112.03	-$61.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$49.94	$50.39	+$0.45
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 88¢	$66.18	$51.89	-$14.29	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$31.04	$31.63	+$0.59	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
RN1<$100	Underavg 42¢	$8.69	$8.38	-$0.31	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 12.9¢	$3.3	$7.96	+$4.65	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 28.5¢	$2.32	$4.08	+$1.76	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$223.7

Value

$162.42

PnL

-$61.28

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

Both legs:

Over$173.7669¢-$61.73

Under$49.9455¢+$0.45

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.18

Value

$51.89

PnL

-$14.29

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$31.04

Value

$31.63

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$4.65

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.32

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$1.76

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.