Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-10-28?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes83¢No17¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$158.91

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL-$7.96

No6 traders

Total Value$866.26

Total Shares6,354

Combined PnL+$166.87

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 84¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$7.96	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 12.4¢	$384.06	$512.74	+$128.69	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 9.6¢	$273.24	$300.42	+$27.18	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 9¢	$426.44	$31	+$7.29	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 9.9¢	$13.97	$14.76	+$0.79	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$3.22	$6.08	+$2.86	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.2	$1.26	+$0.06	63% 1075-624 (1699)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,336.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$7.96

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$384.06

Value

$512.74

PnL

+$128.69

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$273.24

Value

$300.42

PnL

+$27.18

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$426.44

Value

$31

PnL

+$7.29

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$13.97

Value

$14.76

PnL

+$0.79

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.22

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$2.86

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.06

Record

63%

1075-624 (1699)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.