Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$2.5K
$112.89
95.6¢ → 86.2¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 96.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$32.09 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 3.1¢ | $53.09 | $129.2 | +$76.1 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $70.08 | $75.84 | +$1.44 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $25 | $11.7 | +$1 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.1¢ | $6.44 | $8.43 | +$1.99 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $3.99 | $4.2 | +$0.21 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.1¢ | $1.53 | $1.57 | +$0.04 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
Invested
$2,252.2
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$32.09
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$53.09
Value
$129.2
PnL
+$76.1
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$70.08
Value
$75.84
PnL
+$1.44
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$11.7
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$6.44
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$1.99
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.99
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.21
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.57
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.