Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 43¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$284.91

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 43¢

-34% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,301

Combined PnL+$5.26

Over6 traders

Total Value$679.05

Total Shares1,816

Combined PnL+$279.65

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 71.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$86.81	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 20¢	$327.98	$601.46	+$273.48	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 33.1¢	$48.12	$138.96	+$90.84	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 28¢	$48.47	$50.2	+$1.73	50% 3361-3312 (6673)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$26.49	$33.94	+$1.24	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 15¢	$7.5	$14	+$6.5	48% 4420-4876 (9296)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 64¢	$9.98	$9.2	-$0.78	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 38¢	$4.56	$3.18	-$1.38	59% 29934-20654 (50588)
RN1<$100	Overavg 18¢	$0.9	$1	+$0.1	54% 55353-47409 (102762)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,365.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$86.81

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$327.98

Value

$601.46

PnL

+$273.48

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$48.12

Value

$138.96

PnL

+$90.84

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$48.47

Value

$50.2

PnL

+$1.73

Record

50%

3361-3312 (6673)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.49

Value

$33.94

PnL

+$1.24

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$14

PnL

+$6.5

Record

48%

4420-4876 (9296)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$4.56

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$1.38

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.