Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 0 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
11
Under 55%
$4.0K
$0
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)
Outcome Probabilities
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.