Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hamburger SV (33%) · Hamburger SV at 98¢ · $838 held · ended Oct 27

Eintracht Frankfurt2¢Hamburger SV98¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hamburger SV

Consensus Traders

Hamburger SV 33%

Total Value

$837.5

Combined PnL

$559.12

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 98¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHamburger SV at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hamburger SV

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Eintracht Frankfurt2%

Hamburger SV98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eintracht Frankfurt4 traders

Total Value$649.29

Total Shares1,510

Combined PnL+$575.63

Hamburger SV2 traders

Total Value$188.21

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$16.51

Eintracht Frankfurt — 67%Hamburger SV — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 5¢	$50.57	$500.64	+$450.07	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
FO foooool	Hamburger SVavg 94.9¢	$200	$183.46	-$16.54	50% 10445-10309 (20754)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 4.2¢	$9.45	$111.38	+$101.93	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 5¢	$13.42	$34.8	+$21.38	50% 32583-32122 (64705)
HRTrading<$100	Hamburger SVavg 94.6¢	$4.72	$4.75	+$0.03	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 4.5¢	$0.23	$2.48	+$2.25	50% 24110-23737 (47847)

UpTheBluesCTR

Eintracht Frankfurt

Invested

$50.57

Value

$500.64

PnL

+$450.07

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

foooool

Hamburger SV

Invested

$200

Value

$183.46

PnL

-$16.54

Record

50%

10445-10309 (20754)

LuckyLooCTR

Eintracht Frankfurt

Invested

$9.45

Value

$111.38

PnL

+$101.93

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Eintracht Frankfurt

Invested

$13.42

Value

$34.8

PnL

+$21.38

Record

50%

32583-32122 (64705)

HRTrading<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Eintracht Frankfurt

Invested

$0.23

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

24110-23737 (47847)

Research grade

NeutralHamburger SV at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hamburger SV

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hamburger SV wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.