Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 47¢ · $518 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$518.08
-$5.28
46.9¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $261.1 | $258.95 | -$2.15 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 46.5¢ | $119.76 | $113.62 | -$6.14 | 53% 15682-13855 (29537) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $90.36 | $93.34 | +$2.98 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $48.1 | $48.56 | +$0.46 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $4.04 | $3.61 | -$0.43 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
Invested
$261.1
Value
$258.95
PnL
-$2.15
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
Invested
$119.76
Value
$113.62
PnL
-$6.14
Record
53%
15682-13855 (29537)
Invested
$90.36
Value
$93.34
PnL
+$2.98
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
Invested
$48.1
Value
$48.56
PnL
+$0.46
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$3.61
PnL
-$0.43
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.