Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 67¢ · $287 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
$287.5
$28.18
60.4¢ → 67¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 59¢ | $228.63 | $259.56 | +$30.93 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $17.42 | $17.42 | -$0 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $13.26 | $10.52 | -$2.74 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.