Will Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$1.7K
-$62.57
77.2¢ → 81¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 77.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$53.63 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $34.54 | $31.93 | -$2.61 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $34.78 | $30.69 | -$4.09 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $22.24 | $21.64 | +$0.15 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $24.5 | $21.53 | -$2.98 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $9.47 | $11.05 | +$0.2 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $2.09 | $2.17 | +$0.08 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.58 | $1.85 | +$0.26 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.91 | $0.95 | +$0.05 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
Invested
$1,606.65
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$53.63
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$34.54
Value
$31.93
PnL
-$2.61
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$34.78
Value
$30.69
PnL
-$4.09
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$22.24
Value
$21.64
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$21.53
PnL
-$2.98
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$11.05
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.17
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.