Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$58.76

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 63¢

+66% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$980.65

Total Shares2,857

Combined PnL-$59.64

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.33

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.88

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 36.6¢	$889.58	$813.72	-$75.86	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 62.4¢	$232.69	$202.89	-$29.79	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.4¢	$147.27	$156.98	+$9.71
└ No leg	Noavg 62.3¢	$85.42	$45.92	-$39.51
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 55¢	$71.76	$67.19	-$4.57	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 31¢	$49.29	$53.26	+$3.97	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
RN1<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$26.35	$44.64	+$18.29	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.45	$3.33	+$0.88	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$3.32	$1.84	-$1.48	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$889.58

Value

$813.72

PnL

-$75.86

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$232.69

Value

$202.89

PnL

-$29.79

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

Both legs:

Yes$147.2762.4¢+$9.71

No$85.4262.3¢-$39.51

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$71.76

Value

$67.19

PnL

-$4.57

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$49.29

Value

$53.26

PnL

+$3.97

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

RN1<$100

Invested

$26.35

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$18.29

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$1.48

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.