Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$2.7K
-$45.24
81.1¢ → 97.4¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 81.9¢ | $1.9K | $2.2K | +$290.69 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 20.9¢ | $709.66 | $356.75 | -$352.91 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 poshposh | Underavg 69¢ | $114.36 | $127.36 | +$13 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $24.42 | $23.08 | -$1.34 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $18.46 | $21.86 | +$3.4 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 1.6¢ | $3.2 | $4 | +$0.8 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.5¢ | $1.2 | $2.32 | +$1.12 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
Invested
$1,891.79
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$290.69
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$709.66
Value
$356.75
PnL
-$352.91
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
poshposhInvested
$114.36
Value
$127.36
PnL
+$13
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$24.42
Value
$23.08
PnL
-$1.34
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$18.46
Value
$21.86
PnL
+$3.4
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.2
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.8
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$1.12
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.