Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 92¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$4.4K
$1.2K
58.8¢ → 91.5¢
+56% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57.9¢ | $2.5K | $3.7K | +$1.3K | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 65.4¢ | $485.8 | $438.22 | -$47.58 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $94.5 | $88.5 | -$6 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 47.1¢ | $60.6 | $75.99 | +$15.39 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Underavg 48.6¢ | $9.72 | $11.8 | +$2.08 | 76% 3927-1248 (5175) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $5.06 | $5.38 | +$0.32 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$2,481
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$485.8
Value
$438.22
PnL
-$47.58
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
poshposh<$100Invested
$94.5
Value
$88.5
PnL
-$6
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$60.6
Value
$75.99
PnL
+$15.39
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$2.08
Record
76%
3927-1248 (5175)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.06
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.