Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 72¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
$2.5K
$1.2K
33.4¢ → 72¢
+116% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 34.4¢ | $883.47 | $1.6K | +$749.16 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 28.5¢ | $329.42 | $747.1 | +$417.68 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $60 | $68.25 | +$8.25 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $45.37 | $45.87 | +$0.5 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $20.45 | $20.68 | +$0.23 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 43.2¢ | $15.5 | $15.28 | -$0.22 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $2.88 | $3.07 | +$0.2 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $1.28 | $1.21 | -$0.07 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
Invested
$883.47
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$749.16
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$329.42
Value
$747.1
PnL
+$417.68
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
poshposh<$100Invested
$60
Value
$68.25
PnL
+$8.25
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$45.37
Value
$45.87
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$20.68
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$15.5
Value
$15.28
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.88
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.21
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.