Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 39¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 28

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

-$132.79

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 39¢

-34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares9,677

Combined PnL+$838.87

No5 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares11,318

Combined PnL-$971.66

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 52.4¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$151.05	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.4¢	$4.4K	$3.7K	-$752.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.2¢	$2.7K	$3.6K	+$903.2
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 46.2¢	$4.1K	$4.9K	+$852.38	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1CTR	Noavg 53.7¢	$4.9K	$4.1K	-$847.61	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Noavg 74.1¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$74.04	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 47.3¢	$428.77	$430.65	+$1.88	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
FO foooool	Yesavg 54¢	$238.69	$229.12	-$9.57	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 70.6¢	$330.27	$147.34	-$52.56	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 69.2¢	$143.31	$146.84	+$3.54	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$47	$49.14	+$2.14	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$45.09	$44.11	-$0.98	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$28.85	$20.7	-$8.15	73% 1485-544 (2029)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 48.7¢	$7.3	$7.65	+$0.35	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$7.18	$7.02	-$0.16	64% 997-567 (1564)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$7,086.03

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$151.05

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

No$4,421.6452.4¢-$752.14

Yes$2,664.3942.2¢+$903.2

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$4,088.45

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$852.38

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1CTR

Invested

$4,923.33

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$847.61

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Invested

$1,785.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$74.04

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$428.77

Value

$430.65

PnL

+$1.88

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$238.69

Value

$229.12

PnL

-$9.57

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$330.27

Value

$147.34

PnL

-$52.56

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$143.31

Value

$146.84

PnL

+$3.54

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$47

Value

$49.14

PnL

+$2.14

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$45.09

Value

$44.11

PnL

-$0.98

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.85

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$8.15

Record

73%

1485-544 (2029)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.18

Value

$7.02

PnL

-$0.16

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.