SV 07 Elversberg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 99¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$17.5K
$3.2K
66.1¢ → 98.5¢
+49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 aibaby | Underavg 65.6¢ | $11.2K | $14.5K | +$3.3K | 50% 82-81 (163) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 34.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$43.59 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 77.2¢ | $534.4 | $619.72 | +$85.33 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 75¢ | $355.89 | $313.18 | -$42.71 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 33.1¢ | $98.04 | $29.44 | -$68.6 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $19.11 | $13.21 | +$1.61 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
aibabyInvested
$11,244.63
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
50%
82-81 (163)
RN1CTRInvested
$2,019.67
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$43.59
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$534.4
Value
$619.72
PnL
+$85.33
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
VeryLucky888Invested
$355.89
Value
$313.18
PnL
-$42.71
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$98.04
Value
$29.44
PnL
-$68.6
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$19.11
Value
$13.21
PnL
+$1.61
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.