Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 12¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$842.54
43.8¢ → 11.5¢
-74% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 40.3¢ | $1.0K | $990.35 | -$33.35 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $718.9 | $882.18 | +$163.27 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56¢ | $449.4 | $666.15 | +$216.75 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 21.2¢ | $269.51 | $216.03 | -$53.48 | |
MR MrBentlyCTR | Overavg 52¢ | $525.19 | $525.19 | -$0 | 53% 510-461 (971) |
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR | Overavg 44.2¢ | $2.4K | $298.02 | -$816.25 | 51% 631-600 (1231) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 57.8¢ | $57.86 | $70.87 | +$13.01 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $54.72 | $47.76 | -$6.96 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Overavg 38.6¢ | $28.21 | $12.81 | +$2.81 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $6.82 | $5.04 | -$1.78 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
RN1CTRInvested
$1,023.7
Value
$990.35
PnL
-$33.35
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$718.9
Value
$882.18
PnL
+$163.27
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Both legs:
Invested
$525.19
Value
$525.19
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
510-461 (971)
Invested
$2,380.95
Value
$298.02
PnL
-$816.25
Record
51%
631-600 (1231)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$57.86
Value
$70.87
PnL
+$13.01
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$54.72
Value
$47.76
PnL
-$6.96
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$28.21
Value
$12.81
PnL
+$2.81
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
Invested
$6.82
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$1.78
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.