SV 07 Elversberg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$68.19

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 58.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,854

Combined PnL+$68.87

Under7 traders

Total Value$101.5

Total Shares279

Combined PnL-$0.67

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$956.45	$1.1K	+$135.08	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$731.19	$725.61	-$5.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.9¢	$225.25	$365.92	+$140.66
RN1	Overavg 58¢	$861.3	$883.57	+$22.27	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
MR MrBently	Overavg 59¢	$595.9	$656.5	+$60.6	53% 510-461 (971)
FO foooool	Overavg 62.4¢	$246.94	$232.93	-$14.01	50% 10448-10312 (20760)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$49.99	$38.88	-$11.11	53% 3086-2716 (5802)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 25.4¢	$14.81	$24.24	+$9.43	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$16.16	$15.71	-$0.45	49% 18442-18863 (37305)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Underavg 35.7¢	$8.61	$8.43	-$0.18	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 28.7¢	$6.69	$8.16	+$1.46	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$4.21	$4.33	+$0.12	53% 15687-13859 (29546)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.75	+$0.05	50% 24836-24529 (49365)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$956.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$135.08

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

Both legs:

Over$731.1960¢-$5.59

Under$225.2524.9¢+$140.66

RN1

Over

Invested

$861.3

Value

$883.57

PnL

+$22.27

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$595.9

Value

$656.5

PnL

+$60.6

Record

53%

510-461 (971)

foooool

Over

Invested

$246.94

Value

$232.93

PnL

-$14.01

Record

50%

10448-10312 (20760)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.99

Value

$38.88

PnL

-$11.11

Record

53%

3086-2716 (5802)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.81

Value

$24.24

PnL

+$9.43

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.16

Value

$15.71

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

18442-18863 (37305)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.61

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.69

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$1.46

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.21

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

15687-13859 (29546)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

24836-24529 (49365)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.