Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-10-27?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 94¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$89.02

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 94¢

+30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,482

Combined PnL+$404.84

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,730

Combined PnL-$315.82

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 73.8¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$372.57	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 32.7¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	-$725.54	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.8¢	$662.33	$1.3K	+$616.7
└ No leg	Noavg 32.7¢	$2.3K	$945.64	$-1.3K
GR graziek99	Yesavg 82.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$28.04	88% 361-49 (410)
fxwd12345CTR	Noavg 85¢	$1.1K	$906.44	-$226.61	69% 1474-657 (2131)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 81.6¢	$182.39	$147.54	-$34.85	50% 11976-12131 (24107)
FO foooool	Yesavg 31¢	$94.12	$101.35	+$7.23	50% 10448-10312 (20760)
HRTradingARB<$100	Noavg 29.1¢	$71.7	$66.44	-$5.26	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
└ No leg	Noavg 29.1¢	$55.96	$45.12	-$10.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.5¢	$15.74	$21.32	+$5.58
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$25.37	$57.65	+$32.29	53% 15687-13859 (29546)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 30.3¢	$56.92	$44.13	+$20.79	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$53.55	$42.84	-$10.71	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 84¢	$52.45	$42.46	-$9.99	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$9.52	$9.24	-$0.28	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
SY SyrrokCTR	Noavg 33.1¢	$258.4	$2.04	-$33.13	61% 1779-1118 (2897)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$1.75	$1.5	-$0.25	52% 5834-5451 (11285)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,420.76

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$372.57

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,950.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$725.54

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

Both legs:

Yes$662.3344.8¢+$616.7

No$2,287.8732.7¢$-1.3K

graziek99

Yes

Invested

$1,620.13

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$28.04

Record

88%

361-49 (410)

fxwd12345CTR

Invested

$1,133.05

Value

$906.44

PnL

-$226.61

Record

69%

1474-657 (2131)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$182.39

Value

$147.54

PnL

-$34.85

Record

50%

11976-12131 (24107)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$94.12

Value

$101.35

PnL

+$7.23

Record

50%

10448-10312 (20760)

HRTradingARB<$100

Invested

$71.7

Value

$66.44

PnL

-$5.26

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Both legs:

Invested

$25.37

Value

$57.65

PnL

+$32.29

Record

53%

15687-13859 (29546)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.92

Value

$44.13

PnL

+$20.79

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$53.55

Value

$42.84

PnL

-$10.71

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$52.45

Value

$42.46

PnL

-$9.99

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$0.28

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

SyrrokCTR

Invested

$258.4

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$33.13

Record

61%

1779-1118 (2897)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

5834-5451 (11285)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.