SG Dynamo Dresden vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.6K
$273.78
73.4¢ → 94.5¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 68.2¢ | $860.03 | $1.1K | +$259.69 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 89.3¢ | $365.59 | $378.56 | +$12.97 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 34.8¢ | $46.13 | $47.75 | +$1.62 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $8.97 | $8.83 | -$0.14 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $5.04 | $4.67 | -$0.37 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
Invested
$860.03
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$259.69
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$365.59
Value
$378.56
PnL
+$12.97
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46.13
Value
$47.75
PnL
+$1.62
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.97
Value
$8.83
PnL
-$0.14
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$4.67
PnL
-$0.37
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.