SG Dynamo Dresden vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 82¢ · $950 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$949.76
-$106.38
43.6¢ → 82¢
+88% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Underavg 43¢ | $678.19 | $638.76 | -$39.43 | 48% 129-137 (266) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Overavg 55.6¢ | $129.05 | $133.4 | -$0.83 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55.6¢ | $75.98 | $74.5 | -$1.48 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41¢ | $53.07 | $58.9 | +$0.65 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 56.7¢ | $146.7 | $64.67 | -$82.02 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $41.39 | $55.03 | +$13.64 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 41.1¢ | $27.15 | $26.73 | -$0.42 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $20.77 | $20.52 | -$0.25 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $8.54 | $10.64 | +$2.1 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$678.19
Value
$638.76
PnL
-$39.43
Record
48%
129-137 (266)
Invested
$129.05
Value
$133.4
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$146.7
Value
$64.67
PnL
-$82.02
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$41.39
Value
$55.03
PnL
+$13.64
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$27.15
Value
$26.73
PnL
-$0.42
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$20.52
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.54
Value
$10.64
PnL
+$2.1
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.