Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-10-28?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.1K
$14.54
67.3¢ → 70.5¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 66.5¢ | $419.03 | $422.3 | +$3.27 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 68¢ | $321.47 | $233.53 | +$2.26 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 64.5¢ | $134.16 | $143.52 | +$9.36 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
 RN1 | Noavg 70¢ | $116.62 | $117.45 | +$0.83 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $49.98 | $49.15 | -$0.83 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $43.96 | $44.85 | +$0.89 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $39.77 | $38.94 | -$0.83 | 51% 193-189 (382) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $34.84 | $34.84 | -$0.24 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $30.45 | $29.4 | -$0.53 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $2.88 | $3.23 | +$0.35 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$419.03
Value
$422.3
PnL
+$3.27
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
VeryLucky888Invested
$321.47
Value
$233.53
PnL
+$2.26
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$134.16
Value
$143.52
PnL
+$9.36
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
RN1Invested
$116.62
Value
$117.45
PnL
+$0.83
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$49.15
PnL
-$0.83
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$43.96
Value
$44.85
PnL
+$0.89
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
Invested
$39.77
Value
$38.94
PnL
-$0.83
Record
51%
193-189 (382)
Invested
$34.84
Value
$34.84
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
Invested
$30.45
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$0.53
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.88
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.35
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.