BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 6.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 95¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$5.7K
$191.8
91.2¢ → 95¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 92.1¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$76.81 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 90¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$150.98 | 50% 32622-32156 (64778) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 91.5¢ | $578.38 | $621.15 | +$42.76 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 poshposh | Underavg 83¢ | $124.5 | $149.25 | +$24.75 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 88.6¢ | $53.39 | $59.73 | +$6.34 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 13.6¢ | $104.55 | $3.84 | -$100.71 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $9.62 | $0.48 | -$9.14 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$3,253.45
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$76.81
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$1,431.35
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$150.98
Record
50%
32622-32156 (64778)
Invested
$578.38
Value
$621.15
PnL
+$42.76
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
poshposhInvested
$124.5
Value
$149.25
PnL
+$24.75
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
RN1<$100Invested
$53.39
Value
$59.73
PnL
+$6.34
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$104.55
Value
$3.84
PnL
-$100.71
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.62
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$9.14
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.