BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 71¢ · $678 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$677.79
$10.63
73¢ → 70.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 74¢ | $306.08 | $312.28 | +$6.2 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 73.1¢ | $147.61 | $152.51 | +$4.9 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 72.3¢ | $144.5 | $140 | -$4.5 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $57.47 | $61.99 | +$4.52 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 25.6¢ | $11.5 | $11.02 | -$0.48 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
Invested
$306.08
Value
$312.28
PnL
+$6.2
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$147.61
Value
$152.51
PnL
+$4.9
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
VeryLucky888Invested
$144.5
Value
$140
PnL
-$4.5
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$57.47
Value
$61.99
PnL
+$4.52
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.5
Value
$11.02
PnL
-$0.48
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.