Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 49¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
3 arb excluded
$5.8K
$283.28
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $2.3K | $2.5K | +$122.59 | 49% 18385-18813 (37198) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$160 | 47% 2366-2637 (5003) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $762.12 | $739.72 | -$22.4 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $488.42 | $483.43 | -$4.98 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55¢ | $273.71 | $256.29 | -$17.42 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $172.25 | $168.19 | -$4.06 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.4¢ | $123.74 | $119.18 | -$4.56 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $48.51 | $49.01 | +$0.5 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 44.9¢ | $78.05 | $81.37 | +$3.32 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44.9¢ | $43.05 | $42.17 | -$0.88 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $35 | $39.2 | +$4.2 | |
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $66.97 | $67.65 | +$0.68 | 59% 2504-1737 (4241) |
Invested
$2,336.65
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$122.59
Record
49%
18385-18813 (37198)
Invested
$2,080
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$160
Record
47%
2366-2637 (5003)
Invested
$762.12
Value
$739.72
PnL
-$22.4
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.25
Value
$168.19
PnL
-$4.06
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.05
Value
$81.37
PnL
+$3.32
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.97
Value
$67.65
PnL
+$0.68
Record
59%
2504-1737 (4241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.