Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 30¢ · $233 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$232.68
$5.31
29.5¢ → 29.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 28¢ | $99.08 | $102.78 | +$3.7 | 53% 15682-13855 (29537) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 30.8¢ | $73.7 | $69.32 | -$4.38 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 31.8¢ | $28.77 | $31.19 | +$2.42 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $20.3 | $24.15 | +$3.85 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $5.52 | $5.24 | -$0.28 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
Invested
$99.08
Value
$102.78
PnL
+$3.7
Record
53%
15682-13855 (29537)
Invested
$73.7
Value
$69.32
PnL
-$4.38
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$28.77
Value
$31.19
PnL
+$2.42
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$20.3
Value
$24.15
PnL
+$3.85
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.52
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$0.28
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.