BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $356 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$355.9
-$1.85
92.4¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocko33 | Overavg 96.6¢ | $204.31 | $211.39 | +$7.09 | 64% 955-534 (1489) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $69.7 | $79.21 | +$2.87 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $49.94 | $56.72 | +$6.78 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $7.48 | $8.5 | +$1.02 | 73% 1441-531 (1972) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 12.6¢ | $19.68 | $0.08 | -$19.61 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
Invested
$204.31
Value
$211.39
PnL
+$7.09
Record
64%
955-534 (1489)
Invested
$69.7
Value
$79.21
PnL
+$2.87
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$49.94
Value
$56.72
PnL
+$6.78
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
Invested
$7.48
Value
$8.5
PnL
+$1.02
Record
73%
1441-531 (1972)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.68
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$19.61
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.