Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SV Werder Bremen, while the market favors BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (50%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: Team to Advance

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SV Werder Bremen (83%) · SV Werder Bremen at 50¢ · $298 held · ended Oct 27

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund50¢SV Werder Bremen50¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SV Werder Bremen

Consensus Traders

SV Werder Bremen 83%

Total Value

$297.76

Combined PnL

$142.14

Research grade

NeutralSV Werder Bremen at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SV Werder Bremen

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund50%

SV Werder Bremen50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SV Werder Bremen5 traders

Total Value$240.25

Total Shares481

Combined PnL+$180.1

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund1 trader

Total Value$57.51

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$37.95

SV Werder Bremen — 83%BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	SV Werder Bremenavg 16¢	$25.21	$78.79	+$53.57	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100	SV Werder Bremenavg 13¢	$15.8	$60.75	+$44.96	50% 1112-1110 (2222)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 83¢	$95.46	$57.51	-$37.95	65% 1650-894 (2544)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	SV Werder Bremenavg 3.9¢	$3.91	$50.72	+$46.81	59% 29949-20668 (50617)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	SV Werder Bremenavg 15¢	$11.43	$38.09	+$26.66	50% 11976-12131 (24107)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	SV Werder Bremenavg 16¢	$3.81	$11.9	+$8.1	50% 32622-32156 (64778)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

SV Werder Bremen

Invested

$25.21

Value

$78.79

PnL

+$53.57

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

mooseborzoiiCTR<$100

SV Werder Bremen

Invested

$15.8

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$44.96

Record

50%

1112-1110 (2222)

darkumbreon88<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$95.46

Value

$57.51

PnL

-$37.95

Record

65%

1650-894 (2544)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

SV Werder Bremen

Invested

$3.91

Value

$50.72

PnL

+$46.81

Record

59%

29949-20668 (50617)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

SV Werder Bremen

Invested

$11.43

Value

$38.09

PnL

+$26.66

Record

50%

11976-12131 (24107)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

SV Werder Bremen

Invested

$3.81

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$8.1

Record

50%

32622-32156 (64778)

Research grade

NeutralSV Werder Bremen at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

SV Werder Bremen

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SV Werder Bremen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.1%

49.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.