VfL Bochum vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 60¢ · $301 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$300.67
$2.98
59.8¢ → 60¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 59.4¢ | $176.87 | $142.27 | +$3.33 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 59.6¢ | $123.89 | $124.8 | +$0.91 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $22.8 | $22.8 | +$0 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $12.06 | $10.8 | -$1.26 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$176.87
Value
$142.27
PnL
+$3.33
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$123.89
Value
$124.8
PnL
+$0.91
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$22.8
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.06
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$1.26
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.