Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (81%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
VfL Bochum vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 20¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$495.59
49.6¢ → 19.5¢
-61% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxi | Underavg 79.5¢ | $403.22 | $403.07 | -$0.16 | 68% 314-149 (463) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 60.6¢ | $847.94 | $328.79 | -$519.16 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 22.2¢ | $126.64 | $111.24 | -$15.41 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 60¢ | $79.9 | $104.45 | +$24.55 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $75.84 | $79.9 | +$4.06 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 20¢ | $52.94 | $54.27 | +$1.32 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 71¢ | $22.9 | $25.64 | +$2.74 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $53.94 | $53.94 | -$0.44 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $24.8 | $39.81 | +$15.01 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
Invested
$403.22
Value
$403.07
PnL
-$0.16
Record
68%
314-149 (463)
Invested
$847.94
Value
$328.79
PnL
-$519.16
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$126.64
Value
$111.24
PnL
-$15.41
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$79.9
Value
$104.45
PnL
+$24.55
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$75.84
Value
$79.9
PnL
+$4.06
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.94
Value
$53.94
PnL
-$0.44
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$24.8
Value
$39.81
PnL
+$15.01
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.