VfL Bochum vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 56¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$499.32

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,787

Combined PnL+$340.71

Over4 traders

Total Value$915.3

Total Shares1,351

Combined PnL+$158.61

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 70.5¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$344.59	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.5¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$232.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.7¢	$993.69	$881.64	-$112.05
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 27.1¢	$665.35	$1.0K	+$351.26	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
LA LaarsY	Overavg 53¢	$530	$680	+$150	50% 3361-3312 (6673)
SK Skurwysyn	Overavg 63¢	$170.27	$181.08	+$10.81	49% 254-263 (517)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 66.3¢	$118.4	$100.84	-$17.55	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.3¢	$90.46	$79.83	-$10.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.2¢	$27.93	$21.01	-$6.92
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$81.32	$85.13	+$3.81	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 66¢	$42.48	$42.8	+$0.32	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$34.86	$19.92	-$14.94	50% 3675-3651 (7326)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 55.8¢	$13.49	$13.94	+$0.45	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 83¢	$13.94	$11.42	-$2.52	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20.1¢	$6.28	$6.42	+$0.13	50% 32601-32144 (64745)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,190.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$344.59

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

Both legs:

Over$2,196.5370.5¢-$232.54

Under$993.6941.7¢-$112.05

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$665.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$351.26

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

LaarsY

Over

Invested

$530

Value

$680

PnL

+$150

Record

50%

3361-3312 (6673)

Skurwysyn

Over

Invested

$170.27

Value

$181.08

PnL

+$10.81

Record

49%

254-263 (517)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$118.4

Value

$100.84

PnL

-$17.55

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

Both legs:

Over$90.4666.3¢-$10.63

Under$27.9355.2¢-$6.92

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.32

Value

$85.13

PnL

+$3.81

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$42.48

Value

$42.8

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.86

Value

$19.92

PnL

-$14.94

Record

50%

3675-3651 (7326)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.49

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$13.94

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$2.52

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.28

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.