VfL Bochum vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 0.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$2.6K
-$253.08
83.6¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 noosh3 | Overavg 89.5¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$0.02 | 52% 238-219 (457) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 78.4¢ | $855.68 | $976.96 | +$121.29 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
FO foooool | Overavg 80.2¢ | $318.44 | $355.57 | +$37.13 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 10.5¢ | $115.22 | $115.22 | +$0 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 23.2¢ | $103.66 | $102.22 | -$1.44 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 89.2¢ | $64.92 | $65.14 | +$0.22 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $4.09 | $2.02 | -$2.08 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 21.4¢ | $409.18 | $0.96 | -$408.22 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
noosh3Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
238-219 (457)
Invested
$855.68
Value
$976.96
PnL
+$121.29
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$318.44
Value
$355.57
PnL
+$37.13
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$115.22
Value
$115.22
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
RN1CTRInvested
$103.66
Value
$102.22
PnL
-$1.44
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$64.92
Value
$65.14
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.09
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$2.08
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$409.18
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$408.22
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.