Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold VfL Bochum (50%) · VfL Bochum at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
VfL Bochum
6
VfL Bochum 50%
$3.0K
$81.86
70.3¢ → 99.3¢
+41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralVfL Bochum at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on VfL Bochum. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP SparYel | VfL Bochumavg 71¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$167.61 | 47% 18-20 (38) |
UP UpTheBlues | VfL Bochumavg 68.9¢ | $768.46 | $930.28 | +$161.82 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | 1. FSV Mainz 05avg 28.9¢ | $704.43 | $487.62 | -$216.81 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | 1. FSV Mainz 05avg 34.3¢ | $227.15 | $43 | -$9.52 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 HRTrading<$100 | VfL Bochumavg 82¢ | $3.28 | $3.2 | -$0.08 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | 1. FSV Mainz 05avg 29¢ | $23.83 | $0.94 | -$21.16 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
Invested
$1,400
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$167.61
Record
47%
18-20 (38)
Invested
$768.46
Value
$930.28
PnL
+$161.82
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$704.43
Value
$487.62
PnL
-$216.81
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$227.15
Value
$43
PnL
-$9.52
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$23.83
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$21.16
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.