Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-27?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 60¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$7.8K
-$38.33
60.9¢ → 59.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Noavg 38.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$54.08 | 49% 127-134 (261) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 61¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$77.1 | 54% 55311-47349 (102660) |
SE sentrio | Yesavg 60¢ | $664.84 | $659.3 | -$5.54 | 50% 24824-24520 (49344) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 61.2¢ | $354.6 | $345.25 | -$4.03 | 53% 15682-13855 (29537) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 61.5¢ | $123 | $119 | -$4 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $70.15 | $68.43 | -$1.73 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $24.1 | $24.08 | -$0.02 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
Invested
$3,363.24
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$54.08
Record
49%
127-134 (261)
RN1Invested
$3,135.4
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$77.1
Record
54%
55311-47349 (102660)
Invested
$664.84
Value
$659.3
PnL
-$5.54
Record
50%
24824-24520 (49344)
Invested
$354.6
Value
$345.25
PnL
-$4.03
Record
53%
15682-13855 (29537)
VeryLucky888Invested
$123
Value
$119
PnL
-$4
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$70.15
Value
$68.43
PnL
-$1.73
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$24.1
Value
$24.08
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.