VfL Bochum vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$2.5K
-$791.54
62.9¢ → 56¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$296.27 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 69.4¢ | $1.3K | $752.99 | -$505.61 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 53¢ | $381.38 | $348.72 | -$32.66 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 47.1¢ | $221.56 | $263.68 | +$42.12 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $10.29 | $10.29 | +$0 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $4.57 | $4.57 | +$0 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $3.06 | $3.95 | +$0.89 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
RN1Invested
$1,420.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$296.27
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$1,258.6
Value
$752.99
PnL
-$505.61
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$381.38
Value
$348.72
PnL
-$32.66
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$221.56
Value
$263.68
PnL
+$42.12
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.29
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.06
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0.89
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.