Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $121 held · ends Oct 27

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$121.19

Combined PnL

$0.9

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$72.78

Total Shares89

Combined PnL-$0.4

Yes3 traders

Total Value$48.41

Total Shares262

Combined PnL+$1.3

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 82¢	$63.65	$63.25	-$0.39	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$45.36	$46.62	+$1.26	50% 32578-32115 (64693)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.13	$8.09	-$0.05	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.53	$1.58	+$0.04	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 80¢	$1.4	$1.44	+$0.04	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.22	$0.21	-$0.01	53% 15682-13855 (29537)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$63.65

Value

$63.25

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.36

Value

$46.62

PnL

+$1.26

Record

50%

32578-32115 (64693)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$8.13

Value

$8.09

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

15682-13855 (29537)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.