Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-10-27?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$9.3K
-$317.78
86.2¢ → 99.1¢
+15% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $5.7K | $4.8K | -$847.33 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 79¢ | $2.1K | $2.4K | +$316 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 78.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.7K | +$222.37 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $338 | $184.29 | +$14.08 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
 poshposh | Noavg 92¢ | $138 | $136.5 | -$1.5 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $47.54 | $50.3 | +$2.76 | 52% 5834-5451 (11285) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $67.58 | $38.56 | -$23.4 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $31.5 | $31.5 | +$0 | 49% 18442-18863 (37305) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $8.3 | $9.1 | +$0.8 | 53% 15687-13859 (29546) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $8.69 | $7.14 | -$1.56 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
RN1Invested
$5,672.74
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$847.33
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$2,080.33
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$316
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$1,436.3
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$222.37
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
VeryLucky888Invested
$338
Value
$184.29
PnL
+$14.08
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
poshposhInvested
$138
Value
$136.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$47.54
Value
$50.3
PnL
+$2.76
Record
52%
5834-5451 (11285)
Invested
$67.58
Value
$38.56
PnL
-$23.4
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$31.5
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
18442-18863 (37305)
Invested
$8.3
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
15687-13859 (29546)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.69
Value
$7.14
PnL
-$1.56
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.