FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 7.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$261.64

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 81¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,549

Combined PnL+$353.62

Over2 traders

Total Value$141.28

Total Shares1,270

Combined PnL-$91.98

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 83.7¢	$4.4K	$4.8K	+$432.84	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 21.5¢	$1.2K	$651.7	-$580.93	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Over leg	Overavg 21.5¢	$1.1K	$508.26	-$583.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 88.5¢	$141.1	$143.43	+$2.33
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 89.7¢	$252.21	$170.1	-$82.11	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
RN1CTR	Overavg 17.9¢	$218.22	$122.02	-$96.2	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$15.04	$19.25	+$4.21	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 70.2¢	$15.86	$18.76	+$2.9	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,393.5

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$432.84

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,232.63

Value

$651.7

PnL

-$580.93

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Over$1,091.5321.5¢-$583.26

Under$141.188.5¢+$2.33

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$252.21

Value

$170.1

PnL

-$82.11

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$218.22

Value

$122.02

PnL

-$96.2

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.04

Value

$19.25

PnL

+$4.21

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$15.86

Value

$18.76

PnL

+$2.9

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.