FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 6.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.6K
$238.31
58.8¢ → 73¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 54.4¢ | $924.14 | $1.3K | +$374.97 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 31.9¢ | $855.41 | $629.96 | -$225.46 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 77.6¢ | $378.63 | $378.17 | -$0.45 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
FO foooool | Underavg 54¢ | $220.47 | $308.47 | +$88 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $5.84 | $6.04 | +$0.2 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $3.42 | $4.47 | +$1.05 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
Invested
$924.14
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$374.97
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$855.41
Value
$629.96
PnL
-$225.46
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$378.63
Value
$378.17
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$220.47
Value
$308.47
PnL
+$88
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.84
Value
$6.04
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
$4.47
PnL
+$1.05
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.