Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 5.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 38¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$1.9K
$51.13
38¢ → 37.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $923.02 | $910.88 | -$12.14 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $551.76 | $595.32 | +$43.56 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $267.14 | $288.23 | +$21.09 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $97.47 | $96.19 | -$1.28 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $6.9 | $6.81 | -$0.09 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
Invested
$923.02
Value
$910.88
PnL
-$12.14
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$551.76
Value
$595.32
PnL
+$43.56
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$267.14
Value
$288.23
PnL
+$21.09
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$97.47
Value
$96.19
PnL
-$1.28
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$6.81
PnL
-$0.09
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.