FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 54¢ · $295 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$295.04
$2.41
50¢ → 53.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 50¢ | $131.66 | $134.29 | +$2.63 | 49% 18584-19002 (37586) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47.6¢ | $147.6 | $93 | -$0.7 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $53.82 | $54.41 | +$0.59 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.7¢ | $8.35 | $8.14 | -$0.21 | 53% 3017-2681 (5698) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $5.1 | $5.2 | +$0.1 | 53% 2080-1840 (3920) |
Invested
$131.66
Value
$134.29
PnL
+$2.63
Record
49%
18584-19002 (37586)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$147.6
Value
$93
PnL
-$0.7
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
Invested
$53.82
Value
$54.41
PnL
+$0.59
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.35
Value
$8.14
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
3017-2681 (5698)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
2080-1840 (3920)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.