FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$3.8K
$613.93
73.4¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 75.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.5K | +$444.53 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
MR MrBently | Overavg 67¢ | $998.3 | $1.2K | +$171.35 | 52% 514-470 (984) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 98¢ | $98 | $98.5 | +$0.5 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 93.5¢ | $79.32 | $73.96 | -$5.36 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $9.57 | $10.89 | +$1.32 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.1¢ | $5.91 | $7.53 | +$1.62 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $3.36 | $3.33 | -$0.03 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$2,033.11
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$444.53
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$998.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$171.35
Record
52%
514-470 (984)
Invested
$98
Value
$98.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
RN1<$100Invested
$79.32
Value
$73.96
PnL
-$5.36
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$9.57
Value
$10.89
PnL
+$1.32
Record
58%
28127-20735 (48862)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$7.53
PnL
+$1.62
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.