FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$821.37

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares589

Combined PnL+$540.29

Under4 traders

Total Value$383.49

Total Shares806

Combined PnL+$281.08

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 88¢	$763.68	$1.3K	+$540.29	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 11.9¢	$75.53	$307.37	+$231.83	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 16.7¢	$25	$72.75	+$47.75	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$0.83	$3.37	+$2.53	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$1.05	$0.01	-$1.04	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$763.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$540.29

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$75.53

Value

$307.37

PnL

+$231.83

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$72.75

PnL

+$47.75

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.83

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$2.53

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.