Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: 1. FC Magdeburg O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $502 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$501.57
$12.6
46.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $276.45 | $295.13 | +$18.67 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 53¢ | $173.95 | $162.46 | -$11.49 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $19.24 | $24.92 | +$5.67 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $14.42 | $14.42 | +$0.01 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 54.1¢ | $4.91 | $4.64 | -$0.27 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$276.45
Value
$295.13
PnL
+$18.67
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$173.95
Value
$162.46
PnL
-$11.49
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$19.24
Value
$24.92
PnL
+$5.67
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$14.42
Value
$14.42
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.91
Value
$4.64
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.